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Gone to the Dogs

Dedicated to the Discipline of Value Investing

Thursday, June 17, 2010

Uncle Target

On Tuesday, US President Barack Obama described the oil spill that has resulted from the April 20 explosion and fire on BP's oil rig as "the worst environmental disaster America has ever faced". He compared the millions of gallons of oil leaking into the ocean to an epidemic "we will be fighting for months and even years" (watch the video here).


President Obama went on to demand that BP establish an escrow account to set aside funds to compensate those effected by the ongoing oil spill in the Gulf of Mexico. The account is to be administered by an independent third party, according to the president. Democratic senators are asking for $20 billion from the oil company.


Whilst President Obama's response is understandable it lacks logic and clarity of mind. Put more bluntly, his response is riddled with contradictions. The greatest contradictions become apparent by comparing the White House's response to the BP disaster with the response to the financial crisis.


In the case of the BP disaster, the response has taken the form "the company must pay at all cost". By contrast, in the case of the financial crisis - that is filled with cases of moral hazard, human failure and individual greed - was met with a White House response of "Where do we sign?".


As far as the oil spill being the "greatest environmental disaster America has ever faced" goes, President Obama misses the elephant in the room. The greatest environmental disaster the US has ever faced is that caused by its own economic growth and unchecked resource consumption over the past 100 years.


In the article below, Tim Cohen, Associate Editor at Business Day, builds the argument.


Sense Being Spilt As BP Becomes Uncle Target


THE oil spill in the Gulf of Mexico is a serious situation, but that doesn’t mean there isn’t room for a cheap sound bite. Nevada senator Harry Reid, with some support from Democratic colleagues, sent a letter to BP CEO Tony Hayward asking the company to put away 20bn in a special account to be used to pay for economic damages and clean-up costs. He told reporters: “If you drill, and you spill, we’re going to make you pay the bill.” Cute.

The question now is whether BP wants fight or flight, or whether it can sound sufficiently contrite with the right sound bite.

BP is presumably at fault, and the company should pay as much as is reasonably possible to clean up the mess. But 20bn seems such an extraordinary sum it raises questions outside of the incident itself about acceptable levels of corporate responsibility. At this level, those who might be allowed to claim include not only companies that suffered direct damage, but out-of- work fishermen and tourist resorts that received cancellations. Can that be right?

The way the narrative of the event is unfolding illustrates that there comes a point when politics takes over and rationality struggles to maintain a grip. It’s hard not to notice a kind of vortex of hypocrisy. For example, rather than lumbering all the blame on BP, it ought to be at least conceivable that the good people of Earth might consider giving themselves some blame for requiring progressively deeper and more dangerous drilling to satisfy their relentless fuel requirements.

BP’s share price is now half what it was before the spill, and there seems a chance the company will be taken over or perhaps even go bankrupt. Companies should take responsibility for their actions, but doesn’t it seem a little odd that US banks can get away with fleecing taxpayers and yet a British company has to use its own money to clean the US coastline?

There is a military concept known as an “Uncle Target”, whereby in the chaos of war, all the attacking armies somehow believe that some small unit is the critical point in the manoeuvre, when it’s just a tiny unit. The unit gets its socks blown off, to the disguised relief of all the other units, who might sympathise with the unit in the cross hairs but are secretly relieved they are not the ones taking the heat.

BP’s situation is comparable. S ome of the other oil companies claim they could have stopped the flow, which is questionable, since all the action is taking place 1,5km underwater. But it does justify the existence of the word “schadenfreude”. They will doubtless relish the travails of their competitor, but will presumably rue their actions when their turn comes at destroying some part of the environment.

The irony is that BP is one of the leaders in the notion that it’s not an oil company but an energy company. As such, it supported lots of good things that progressive environmentalists wanted. Yet the public are very angry at US President Barack Obama for not being very angry, so all the previous public- private co-operation has been tossed out of the window as BP becomes the Uncle Target.

Hypocrisy is not fussy. Republicans in the US are seemingly relishing Obama’s discomfort, but Republicans are normally the first to support drilling for oil wherever it might be. Yet it was not only Republicans who passed the US Oil Pollution Act of 1990, which limits BP’s liability for non-cleanup costs to 75m .

This legislation was put in place after the Exxon Valdez oil spill precisely to limit civil damages, since it was thought at the time the potential claims could affect the oil flow. It wasn’t introduced by the Republicans, although it got huge support and passed in the House of Representatives by 375 votes to five.

It’s at times like these that the human race seems an abominably low thing. Personally, and I may be a vote of precisely one here, but Obama’s equanimity is the one thing that seems sane in all this, and it’s with great disappointment that I see him concede to the rabble-rousers from all sides.

Posted by Adrian Saville at 4:02 PM 0 comments   Links to this post

Tuesday, June 15, 2010

Commodity Fight Club: Anglos versus BHP Billiton

The link below connects to an article that I contributed to the business section of iafrica.com which looks at the metrics of the JSE's two largest diversified resources companies.

My argument goes in favour of Anglo offering better value than BHP Billiton.

http://personalfinance.iafrica.com/

Posted by Adrian Saville at 10:00 AM 1 comments   Links to this post

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In Search of Value

john wolfgang von goethe (1749-1832)

"To think is easy. To act is difficult. To act as one thinks is the most difficult of all."

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  • Peter Schiff's Blog
  • Warwick Lucas' Blog
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  • The Long Now Foundation
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  • Shai Dardashti et al's Value Site
  • Cannon Asset Managers' Homepage
  • Geoff Gannon's Value Site and Podcast
  • Cowen and Tabarrok's Marginal Revolution
  • James P. O'Shaughnessy's What Works on Wall Street
  • Greg Fisher's blog on Entrepreneurship & Innovation
  • Warren Buffett on various topics in finance

My Investment Philosophy

Welcome to my blog. I am a disciple of contrarian, deep-value investing, and consider much of what passes as investment opinion to be little more than 'market noise'. In this vein, I will only post to this blog when I have something of value to add. The rest must remain noise.

My conviction for contrarian investing derives from the simple yet powerful arguments that rest behind successful value investing: it pays to be contrarian, to be patient and to aim to strip emotion out of investment decision making. If you can capture these investment forces, then you stand an exceptional chance of being ahead of the market.

But sticking to the knitting is not as easy at it appears. Much stands in the way of successful investing, and even more so in the case of the contrarian portfolio. As the term implies, it is mathematically impossible that the average investor is contrarian. Further, to be contrarian means that you must willingly adopt and maintain a stance that is at odds with the mainstream. And then there is always the noise to act as a constant distraction and source of distress to investors.

Only a handful of professional managers consistently beat the street. This outcome is an indictment of the professional fund management industry; yet it also demonstrates the power of disciplined value investing.

Painted on this canvas, this blog explores the philosophy and practice of investing as a deep value manager.

Blog Archive

  • ▼  2010 (12)
    • ▼  June (4)
      • Uncle Target
      • Commodity Fight Club: Anglos versus BHP Billiton
      • TANSTAAFL & Keynesian Endpoints
      • The Age of War
    • ►  April (2)
      • You’ll Be Stunned: Poor Philosophy and Bad Process...
      • Selling His Soul To Golden Slacks
    • ►  March (3)
      • Lessons From the Collapse of Bear Stearns
      • At least two new asset bubbles: sound familiar?
      • An Investor's Buffet: Eat Your Own Cooking
    • ►  February (1)
      • Currency Has Little To Do With Competitiveness
    • ►  January (2)
      • Investors beware: teen bubbles are forming investm...
      • Investing in the New Decade
  • ►  2009 (9)
    • ►  October (2)
      • The Three Habits
      • Is The Market Cheap?
    • ►  July (2)
      • What can replace efficient markets theory?
      • The Little Book That Beats The Market
    • ►  June (1)
      • Somewhat Revolted, But Not Revolting
    • ►  April (1)
      • Isn’t It Ironic?
    • ►  March (1)
      • A Metric Called IAPE
    • ►  February (2)
      • The End Before the Beginning
      • The Year the Dog Ate My Homework
  • ►  2008 (14)
    • ►  December (2)
      • Back to Basics: Finding Value With Graham and Dodd...
      • The Future is not in the Stars
    • ►  November (2)
      • The Road to Revulsion
      • Monsters and Angels
    • ►  September (1)
      • Keynes and Investment Success: A Contrarian Stance...
    • ►  August (1)
      • Banking on Value
    • ►  July (1)
      • South Africa’s Perception-Reality Mismatch
    • ►  June (1)
      • The Buffett Buffet
    • ►  April (1)
      • A Last Gasp for Growth?
    • ►  March (2)
      • Don’t Do Something, Just Sit There
      • The Day After: Picking Through the Debris
    • ►  February (1)
      • Sticking To the Rules: Ego Leads Investors to Thin...
    • ►  January (2)
      • Look Ma! No Hands: Navigating Equity Markets
      • About Leverage, Volatility and Finding Sanity When...
  • ►  2007 (10)
    • ►  December (1)
      • Why You Want That Sonkin Feeling
    • ►  November (2)
      • Building on Experience
      • Support or Sell
    • ►  October (3)
      • A Conversation With Benjamin Graham
      • Not All Funds are Born Equal: Why Value Works
      • My Alpha-Extracting Machine
    • ►  September (4)
      • In Search of Success: A Contrarian View
      • Forecasters' Fallacy
      • Dreman's Two Rooms
      • Get Greedy When They're Fearful

A Value Manager's Library

  • Anthony M. Gallea and William Patalon III (1998) Contrarian Investing. New York: Prentice Hall.
  • Ayn Rand (1952) The Fountainhead. New York: New American Library
  • Ben Warwick (2000) Searching for Alpha: The Quest for Exceptional Investment Performance. New York: John Wiley & Sons.
  • Benjamin Graham (2006) The Intelligent Investor, Fourth Revised Edition. New York: HarperCollins.
  • Bruce Greenwald, Judd Kahn, Paul Sonkin and Michael Van Biema (2001) Value Investing: From Graham to Buffett and Beyond. Hoboken, New Jersey: Wiley.
  • Burton G. Malkiel (1990) A Random Walk Down Wall Street, Fifth Edition. New York: Norton and Co.
  • Charles Ellis (2004) Capital: The Story of Long-Term Investment Excellence. Hoboken, New Jersey: Wiley.
  • David Dreman (1998) Contrarian Investment Strategies: The Next Generation. New York: Simon & Schuster.
  • Jim Collins (2001) Good to Great: Why Some Companies Make the Leap ... and Others Don’t. New York: Harper Collins.
  • Joel Greenblatt (2006) The Little Book that Beats the Market. Hoboken, New Jersey: Wiley.
  • John Neff with S.L. Mintz (1999) John Neff on Investing. New York: John Wiley & Sons.
  • John R. Nofsinger (2002) Investment Blunders of the Rich and Famous. Upper Saddle River, New Jersey: Pearson Education.
  • Jonathan Davis (2004) Investing with Anthony Bolton: The Anatomy of a Stock Market Phenomenon. Petersfield, Hampshire: Harriman House Publishing.
  • Michael E. Porter (1996) On Competition. Boston: Harvard Business Review.
  • Michael Lewis (2004) Moneyball: The Art of Winning an Unfair Game. New York: Norton & Co.
  • Peter L. Bernstein (1992) Capital Ideas: The Improbable Origins of Modern Wall Street. New York: The Free Press.
  • Richard Branson (1999) Losing My Virginity: How I’ve Survived, Had Fun, and Made a Fortune Doing Business My Way. New York: Three Rivers Press.
  • Robert A. Haugen (2001) The Inefficient Stock Market: What Pays Off and Why. Upper Saddle River, New Jersey: Prentice Hall.
  • Robert G. Hagstrom, Jr (1994) The Warren Buffett Way: Investment Strategies of the World's Greatest Investor. New York: John Wiley & Sons.
  • Terry Burnham (2005) Mean Markets and Lizard Brains: How to Profit from the New Science of Irrationality. Hoboken, New Jersey: Wiley.
  • Thomas J Peters & Robert Waterman (1982) In Search of Excellence: Lessons From America’s Best-Run Companies. New York: Harper & Row.
  • Vijay Singal (2004) Beyond the Random Walk: A Guide to Stock Market Anomalies and Low-Risk Investing. Oxford: Oxford University Press.

If (Rudyard Kipling)

If you can keep your head when all about you
Are losing theirs and blaming it on you;
If you can trust yourself when all men doubt you,
But make allowance for their doubting too;
If you can wait and not be tired by waiting,
Or, being lied about, don't deal in lies,
Or, being hated, don't give way to hating,
And yet don't look too good, nor talk too wise;

If you can dream - and not make dreams your master;
If you can think - and not make thoughts your aim;
If you can meet with triumph and disaster
And treat those two imposters just the same;
If you can bear to hear the truth you've spoken
Twisted by knaves to make a trap for fools,
Or watch the things you gave your life to broken,
And stoop and build 'em up with wornout tools;

If you can make one heap of all your winnings
And risk it on one turn of pitch-and-toss,
And lose, and start again at your beginnings
And never breath a word about your loss;
If you can force your heart and nerve and sinew
To serve your turn long after they are gone,
And so hold on when there is nothing in you
Except the Will which says to them: "Hold on";

If you can talk with crowds and keep your virtue,
Or walk with kings - nor lose the common touch;
If neither foes nor loving friends can hurt you;
If all men count with you, but none too much;
If you can fill the unforgiving minute
With sixty seconds' worth of distance run -
Yours is the Earth and everything that's in it,
And - which is more - you'll be a Man my son!

ayn rand (1905-1982), the fountainhead (1943)

"... the mind is an attribute of the individual. There is no such thing as a collective brain ... An agreement reached by a group of men is only a compromise or an average down upon many individual thoughts ... The primary act - the process of reason - must be performed by each man alone ... This creative faculty cannot be given or received, shared or borrowed. It belongs to single, individual men."

Carl Sagan (US Astronomer, 1934-1996)

"Where we have strong emotions, we're liable to fool ourselves."

David Dreman

“Nobody beats the market, they say ... Except for those of us who do.”